Exploring land use change under different policy settings in two case study catchments

^{Wairoa River. Photo: Jason Milich, Flickr}

The Commissioner has released two case studies to support his major new report on the challenge of land use change.

Exploring land use change under different policy settings in two case study catchments investigates how current, proposed and alternative approaches to environmental policy could affect land use change in the Mataura catchment in Murihiku Southland and the Wairoa catchment in Te Tai Tokerau Northland. The case studies are a companion report to Going with the grain: Changing land uses to fit a changing landscape, which sets out the challenges and possible ways forward when navigating decisions on land use.

For the case studies, a range of tools – including landscape susceptibility mapping, land use and management change modelling, economic modelling and close consultation with mana whenua and local communities – was used to model how these catchments could look in 2030 and 2060 under different environmental policy mixes.

The findings illustrate the striking scale of possible change if we do not carefully manage the interaction between environmental and economic policies. However, the results cannot be extrapolated to other catchments as the different physical geography, whakapapa and land uses would produce different results.

The report instead outlines an approach that could be adapted and developed by others to model the outcomes of various environmental policies on their own land, before making significant decisions.

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Explore how land uses are changing